Skip to content

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameIndoor12:40 PM PT
Model pickSeattle Mariners

New York Mets 3.7 · Seattle Mariners 4.4

61%confidence
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Seattle Mariners20-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.2) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeT-Mobile ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Seattle Mariners gets the model’s nod thanks to Seattle Mariners’s margin advantage, with New York Mets’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. New York Mets is 55% over their recent sample; Seattle Mariners is 40%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. Seattle Mariners projects 51% from points-for vs points-allowed; New York Mets sits at 41%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

New York Mets

Seattle Mariners

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

Back to GameCast · Open today’s scores

Trending