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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:10 PM PT
Model pickLos Angeles Dodgers

Baltimore Orioles 3.3 · Los Angeles Dodgers 5.7

68%confidence
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Los Angeles Dodgers24-16+1.7 net/g (SOS-adj +1.6) · expected win rate 68% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeDodger StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Los Angeles Dodgers because Los Angeles Dodgers owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Los Angeles Dodgers has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Three things to watch

  • Net efficiency. Los Angeles Dodgers projects 68% from points-for vs points-allowed; Baltimore Orioles sits at 41%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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