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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor12:15 PM CT
Model pickSt. Louis Cardinals

San Francisco Giants 3.2 · St. Louis Cardinals 5.2

68%confidence
San Francisco Giants16-24-1-1.2 net/g (SOS-adj -1.2) · expected win rate 36% · last 10: 30%
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeBusch StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

St. Louis Cardinals gets the model’s nod thanks to St. Louis Cardinals’s margin advantage, with St. Louis Cardinals’s recent run providing the second tip. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. St. Louis Cardinals is 55% over their recent sample; San Francisco Giants is 30%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. St. Louis Cardinals projects 51% from points-for vs points-allowed; San Francisco Giants sits at 36%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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