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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor7:05 PM CT
Model pickTexas Rangers

New York Mets 3.7 · Texas Rangers 4.3

60%confidence
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Texas Rangers19-21-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeGlobe Life FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Texas Rangers because Texas Rangers owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and New York Mets has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Three things to watch

  • Net efficiency. Texas Rangers projects 49% from points-for vs points-allowed; New York Mets sits at 41%.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

New York Mets

Texas Rangers

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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