HOU @ CLE
Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:10 PM ET⚾ Spencer Arrighetti vs Slade CecconiMLB.TVCLEGuardians.TV
Result readHouston Astros
Houston Astros 9 · Cleveland Guardians 2
Final
Houston Astros16-25-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 50%
Cleveland Guardians21-21-1-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeProgressive FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Houston Astros gets the model’s nod thanks to Cleveland Guardians’s margin advantage, with Cleveland Guardians’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Cleveland Guardians at 69%. Actual: Houston Astros by 7.
Pre-game pick: Cleveland Guardians at 69%. Actual: Houston Astros by 7.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Houston Astros
- Mike Burrows SP · #50
- Lance McCullers Jr. SP · #43
- Kai-Wei Teng RP · #17
- Christian Walker 1B · #8
Cleveland Guardians
- Gavin Williams SP · #32
- Joey Cantillo SP · #54
- Jose Ramirez 3B · #11
- Brayan Rocchio SS · #4
Injury Report
Cleveland Guardians
Gabriel Arias10-Day-ILShawn Armstrong15-Day-ILAndrew Walters15-Day-ILCarlos HernandezDay-To-Day
Houston Astros
Tatsuya Imai15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-DayWalker JanekDay-To-DayLucas SpenceDay-To-DayYainer Diaz10-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreHoskins singled to left, Ramírez scored, Manzardo to second.2–1
- ScoreParedes homered to left (375 feet).9–2
- ScoreDiaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored.7–2
- ScoreCorrea singled to center, Harris scored and Matthews scored.6–2
- 🏃 DoubleMatthews doubled to left, Smith scored, Harris to third.4–2
- ScoreSmith hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored.8–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 0 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
Houston Astros
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa SS· | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .275 | .359 | .375 |
| Yordan Alvarez LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .326 | .459 | .756 |
| Jose Altuve 2B· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .281 | .385 | .449 |
| Christian Walker 1B· | 3-5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .274 | .367 | .536 |
| Isaac Paredes 3B· | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | .221 | .329 | .368 |
| Taylor Trammell CF· | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | .345 | .424 | .448 |
| Cam Smith RF | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .238 | .330 | .413 |
| Yainer Diaz C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .194 | .222 | .269 |
| Dustin Harris LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .000 | .167 | .000 |
| Brice Matthews LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .129 | .229 | .290 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Arrighetti SP· | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 96-56 | 2.45 | 96 |
| Steven Okert RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15-10 | 3.18 | 15 |
| AJ Blubaugh RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15-8 | 6.60 | 15 |
| Jayden Murray RP | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 39-24 | 4.50 | 39 |
Cleveland Guardians
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | .220 | .294 | .286 |
| Chase DeLauter RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .219 | .318 | .493 |
| Jose Ramirez 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .230 | .356 | .494 |
| Kyle Manzardo 1B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | .182 | .260 | .242 |
| Rhys Hoskins 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 29 | .214 | .353 | .357 |
| George Valera LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .294 | .333 | .412 |
| Juan Brito 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | .171 | .244 | .244 |
| Bo Naylor C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .143 | .208 | .224 |
| Brayan Rocchio SS· | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .286 | .390 | .457 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slade Cecconi SP· | 5.0 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 94-58 | 6.20 | 94 |
| Matt Festa RP | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22-17 | 6.35 | 22 |
| Tim Herrin RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19-11 | 0.00 | 19 |
| Connor Brogdon RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19-11 | 6.75 | 19 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 4th InningKwan lined out to left.
- 8th InningBrito fouled out to catcher.
- 4th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
- 9th InningHoskins singled to left, Hoskins out stretching at second.
Scoring Plays
- 1st InningHoskins singled to left, Ramírez scored, Manzardo to second.2–1
- 9th InningParedes homered to left (375 feet).9–2
- 5th InningDiaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored.7–2
- 4th InningCorrea singled to center, Harris scored and Matthews scored.6–2
- 4th InningMatthews doubled to left, Smith scored, Harris to third.4–2
- 7th InningSmith hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored.8–2
- 3rd InningValera singled to right, Ramírez scored.2–2
- 4th InningParedes homered to left (383 feet).3–2
- 1st InningWalker homered to left center (391 feet), Correa scored.2–0