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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor7:07 PM ET
Model pickPhiladelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies 4.3 · Toronto Blue Jays 4.3

54%confidence
Philadelphia Phillies20-22-1-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.6) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Toronto Blue Jays18-23-1-0.4 net/g (SOS-adj -0.4) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeRogers CentreHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Philadelphia Phillies is the model’s call — Toronto Blue Jays on the margin numbers, Philadelphia Phillies on the form numbers. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Philadelphia Phillies is 70% over their recent sample; Toronto Blue Jays is 40%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

Back to GameCast · Open today’s scores

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