InTheRafters.com

HOU @ BAL

Joshua Silvia
11–17 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor3:55 PM ET59°F · 10 mph wind · clear⚾ Lance McCullers Jr. vs Brandon YoungMLB.TV
Result readHouston Astros

Houston Astros 11 · Baltimore Orioles 5

Final
Houston Astros15-23-1-0.9 net/g (SOS-adj -1.0) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 45%
Baltimore Orioles17-20-1-0.9 net/g (SOS-adj -1.0) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 45%
Venue EdgeOriole Park at Camden YardsHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Houston Astros is the model’s call — Baltimore Orioles on the margin numbers, Baltimore Orioles on the form numbers. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Baltimore Orioles at 61%. Actual: Houston Astros by 6.

Players to Watch

Houston Astros

Baltimore Orioles

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles

Luis VazquezDay-To-DayKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILWill RobertsonDay-To-DayRyan Helsley15-Day-IL

Houston Astros

Lucas SpenceDay-To-DayTatsuya Imai15-Day-ILJeremy Pena10-Day-ILNate Pearson15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr.Day-To-Day

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Houston Astros
YA Yordan Alvarez LF · #44 DJ Daniel Johnson CF · #31 CS Cam Smith RF · #11 IP Isaac Paredes 3B · #15 CC Carlos Correa SS · #1 JA Jose Altuve 2B · #27 CW C. Walker 1B · #8 MB Mike Burrows P · #50 YD Yainer Diaz C · #21
Baltimore Orioles
TW Taylor Ward LF · #3 LT Leody Taveras CF · #30 CC Colton Cowser RF · #17 CM Coby Mayo 3B · #16 GH G. Henderson SS · #2 JJ J. Jackson 2B · #82 PA Pete Alonso 1B · #25 CB Chris Bassitt P · #40 SB Samuel Basallo C · #29

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreParedes singled to right, Johnson scored, Alvarez to second, Matthews to third.4th Inning7–0
  2. ScoreHarris singled to right, Alvarez scored and Paredes scored.1st Inning2–0
  3. ScoreDiaz singled to left, Paredes scored, Walker to third.4th Inning10–0
  4. ScoreMayo hit sacrifice fly to left, Cowser scored.9th Inning11–5
  5. ScoreShewmake scored on Foster wild pitch, Matthews to third.5th Inning11–3
  6. ScoreWalker singled to right, Matthews scored, Paredes to second, Alvarez to third.4th Inning8–0

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Houston Astros51041000011140
Baltimore Orioles000300101562

Houston Astros

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Brice Matthews LF·1-6611000219.207.270.379
Yordan Alvarez LF·3-4433111117.356.462.737
Isaac Paredes 3B·2-5522100018.253.339.384
Christian Walker 1B·2-5502100018.293.366.552
Dustin Harris LF·1-4411300016.167.250.250
Yainer Diaz C·2-5512100015.239.258.348
Cam Smith RF·1-4411311118.219.317.381
Daniel Johnson CF·1-4411001115.154.313.154
Braden Shewmake 2B·1-5511000218.200.200.500

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Lance McCullers Jr. SP·6.023349099-576.3299
Bryan Abreu RP1.021123027-1712.5427
Enyel De Los Santos RP1.010012025-145.5625
Cody Bolton SP1.011110018-85.7918

Baltimore Orioles

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Gunnar Henderson SS·1-4401100214.214.283.481
Blaze Alexander 3B0-110000002.177.250.210
Taylor Ward LF·0-1110003020.304.438.443
Colton Cowser RF0-001000105.186.269.220
Dylan Beavers RF·1-5501000317.228.303.342
Pete Alonso 1B·1-3311100115.198.306.362
Coby Mayo 3B0-110010017.169.244.325
Samuel Basallo C·0-5500000426.232.315.439
Tyler O'Neill RF·1-2211002022.225.340.300
Leody Taveras CF·1-3311201117.288.397.455
Weston Wilson 3B·1-3301001011.308.471.385
Jeremiah Jackson 2B·0-4400000213.270.288.480

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Brandon Young SP·4.0910422282-514.3082
Cameron Foster RP2.031112032-205.8732
Keegan Akin RP1.010001014-927.0014
Tyler Wells RP1.010000016-123.1816
Yennier Cano RP1.000002010-91.6910

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningBasallo struck out swinging.
  2. 7th InningTaveras walked.
  3. 7th InningShewmake struck out swinging.
  4. 2nd InningTaveras struck out looking.

Scoring Plays

  1. 4th InningParedes singled to right, Johnson scored, Alvarez to second, Matthews to third.7–0
  2. 1st InningHarris singled to right, Alvarez scored and Paredes scored.2–0
  3. 4th InningDiaz singled to left, Paredes scored, Walker to third.10–0
  4. 9th InningMayo hit sacrifice fly to left, Cowser scored.11–5
  5. 5th InningShewmake scored on Foster wild pitch, Matthews to third.11–3
  6. 4th InningWalker singled to right, Matthews scored, Paredes to second, Alvarez to third.8–0
  7. 1st InningSmith homered to center (414 feet), Harris scored and Diaz scored.5–0
  8. 5th InningShewmake scored on Foster wild pitch, Matthews to third on wild pitch by Foster.11–3
  9. 4th InningTaveras tripled to right, Alonso scored and O'Neill scored.10–3
  10. 7th InningHenderson doubled to right, Taveras scored, Wilson to third.11–4
  11. 4th InningAlonso doubled to left, Ward scored.10–1
  12. 4th InningHarris hit sacrifice fly to center, Alvarez scored, Paredes to third.9–0
  13. 2nd InningAlvarez homered to center (424 feet).6–0

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